Marginal Electorates after the 2016 Federal Election

Below is a table and a link to a map showing marginal electorates (two-candidate preferred margin of less than 6%) following the 2016 Federal Election. This takes into account only straightforward ALP vs. Coalition contests.

In total there are 48 marginal electorates, 22 held by the ALP and 26 help by the Coalition. Roughly three quarters of the marginal electorates are in Queensland, NSW, or Victoria.

The next election must be held between August 2018 and May 2019. Psephologist Antony Green believes that August 2018 is more likely. If the Coalition experiences a net loss of one seat, they won’t have a majority in their own right.

Electoral campaigning is only one of many ways to achieve change. However, with the next election possibly just two years away, and the Coalition vulnerable to losing power, these marginal electorates may prove to be sites of significant leverage in pushing for action.

I wanted to publish this because it seems nobody else has made this information readily digestible. I’d be interested to hear any observations or reflections.

You can see the electorates in this map. Blue indicates a Coalition incumbent; red an ALP incumbent. A lighter shade means a margin of less than 2%.

For the below table, you can view the same information in this google document if you’d like to be able to filter, sort, or do your own manipulation.

Electorate State Party Coalition Percentage ALP Percentage Swing
Brisbane QLD LNP 55.92 44.08 1.64
Sturt SA LP 55.89 44.11 -4.19
Deakin VIC LP 55.68 44.32 2.5
Mayo SA LP 55.35 44.65 -7.16
Reid NSW LP 54.69 45.31 1.36
Indi VIC LP 54.4 45.6 -4.7
Leichhardt QLD LNP 53.95 46.05 -1.73
Pearce WA LP 53.63 46.37 -5.68
Swan WA LP 53.59 46.41 -3.75
Boothby SA LP 53.5 46.5 -3.62
Bonner QLD LNP 53.39 46.61 -0.3
Dawson QLD LNP 53.34 46.66 -4.24
Corangamite VIC LP 53.13 46.87 -0.81
Page NSW NP 52.3 47.7 -0.8
Hasluck WA LP 52.05 47.95 -3.97
Petrie QLD LNP 51.65 48.35 1.12
Dickson QLD LNP 51.6 48.4 -5.12
La Trobe VIC LP 51.46 48.54 -2.55
Banks NSW LP 51.44 48.56 -1.36
Dunkley VIC LP 51.43 48.57 -4.14
Chisholm VIC LP 51.24 48.76 2.84
Robertson NSW LP 51.14 48.86 -1.95
Flynn QLD LNP 51.04 48.96 -5.49
Gilmore NSW LP 50.73 49.27 -3.05
Capricornia QLD LNP 50.63 49.37 -0.14
Forde QLD LNP 50.63 49.37 -3.75
Herbert QLD ALP 49.98 50.02 -6.19
Hindmarsh SA ALP 49.42 50.58 -2.47
Cowan WA ALP 49.32 50.68 -5.2
Longman QLD ALP 49.21 50.79 -7.71
Lindsay NSW ALP 48.89 51.11 -4.1
Melbourne Ports VIC ALP 48.62 51.38 2.18
Griffith QLD ALP 48.4 51.6 1.5
Macquarie NSW ALP 47.81 52.19 -6.67
Braddon TAS ALP 47.8 52.2 -4.76
Lyons TAS ALP 47.69 52.31 -3.53
Eden-Monaro NSW ALP 47.07 52.93 -5.84
Perth WA ALP 46.67 53.33 -1.15
Bendigo VIC ALP 46.26 53.74 -2.48
Richmond NSW ALP 46.04 53.96 -2.38
Moreton QLD ALP 45.98 54.02 -2.47
Bruce VIC ALP 45.92 54.08 -2.28
Adelaide SA ALP 45.35 54.65 -0.7
Jagajaga VIC ALP 45.33 54.67 -1.54
Dobell NSW ALP 45.19 54.81 -4.63
Lilley QLD ALP 44.68 55.32 -4
Isaacs VIC ALP 44.27 55.73 -1.87
Solomon NT ALP 44 56 -7.4
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2 thoughts on “Marginal Electorates after the 2016 Federal Election

  1. Hi Joel,
    Have you had any feedback since last August on this national pendulum-style analysis? Are you still confident the numbers and swings required are correct? As you wrote, I can’t see that anyone else has done this. Thanks.

    1. Hi Gavin, thanks for the question. It looks like the underlying values /have/ changed since I did this post – probably due to refined counting by the AEC. I will update the base data accordingly.

      Since I made my post though, Antony Green has done his own post-election pendulum: http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2017/04/a-bit-late-but-a-post-2016-federal-election-pendulum-plus-results-summary.html. It is pretty great, the only strength of my data perhaps is the lovely graphical representation overlaid on the map of Australia!

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